Catalonian Secession, and the Approaching Spanish Civil War

Nestled along the coast of Spain, is the ancient city of Barcelona and the surrounding countryside that make up the state of Catalonia. Within its borders, lives an old and storied people, with their own language, culture, and even its own parliament separate from the legislative bodies in Madrid. They are by far, one of the most Independent regions within the European Union. Don't tell that to Spain's central government though. As far as they're concerned, Catalonia is just another vassal state with a tax base.

Since the early 20th century, Catalonia has seen a massive resurgence of its nationalist movement. Despite being brutally suppressed by the Franco regime, the movement made a comeback in the late 70's and 80's, and managed to secure several autonomous rights in the process.

Fast forward to the present day, and now we see the secession sentiments stronger than ever, as the people of Catalonia try to separate themselves from the nation of Spain. And they should. Spain, like many of the European Union's southern members, is a total basket-case with an enormous unemployment rate, a large class of welfare dependent citizens, and debt levels so high it would make a casino blush.

As is to be expected with most nations, the central government refuses to allow them to strike out on their own. They continue to claim that their constitution allows no such right, as if a contract that doesn't protect the right to self-determination is binding in any way. Despite these setbacks, the state of Catalonia has decided to go ahead with a non-binding secession referendum, in defiance of Spain's demands:

The Catalan leader, Artur Mas, formally called a November referendum on independence on Saturday, in a show of defiance that puts the wealthy north-east region of Spain on a collision course with the central government in Madrid.

Mas's signature on a decree allowing the vote to go forward came one week after the Catalan parliament passed a law paving the way for non-binding consultations in the region. As the solemn signing ceremony took place yesterday morning, government officials crowded around the document, excitedly snapping photographs on their mobile phones.

"Catalonia has the right to decide its political future," said Mas. "We know that democracy is the most civilised way to resolve difficulties between nations." The 9 November referendum would see two questions put to Catalans: whether Catalonia should be a state and, if so, whether it should be an independent state.

Despite the referendum being non-binding, not unlike a straw poll, the government of Spain has the gall to claim that it too is unconstitutional. And while they blast the public with their high minded rhetoric of unity and solidarity, nobody doubts their true motives for preventing this separation:

Proud of their Catalan language and culture, but suffering in an economic crisis, many of the 7.5 million people in Catalonia say they feel short-changed by the central government which redistributes their taxes.

Catalonia was there at the symbolic birth of Spain when Queen Isabella of Castile and King Ferdinand of Aragon, a region that included Catalonia, married in 1469. Now Catalonia accounts for one-fifth of Spain’s total output and an even greater share of its exports.

Catalonia is one of the few regions that gives more than it takes back. Their percentage of the GPD is higher than their percentage of the population, and the people are sick and tired of giving their tax dollars to failing system. They are a region that has historically, been marginalized and persecuted by a central government that doesn't much care for their customs and institutions. If Catalonia goes, it's doubtful that the Basques will stick around for much longer. It would essentially put an end to the nation of Spain as we know it, and the drop in tax dollars would push them further over the fiscal cliff.

Moreover, the central government has quietly hinted at the repercussions the Catalans will face, if they attempt to leave Spain:

“Spain is an indissoluble nation. In case of threat of fracture or separatism, according to article 8 of the Spanish Constitution, we have to guarantee the integrity of the territory. Therefore, it is our opinion that we have to declare a state of war or siege.” This is the opinion of the president of the Spanish Military Association (AME), Colonel Leopoldo Muñoz Sánchez. These are the words of Colonel Muñoz who expressed his opinion on behalf of one of the three largest military associations in Spain, who gave an interview regarding the current political issue in Catalonia that was shown on Dutch television channel “Niewsur”

Funny, Section 8 of their constitution talks about defending their sovereignty and independence, but makes no mention secession. I guess violating the spirit and intent of the constitution, isn't just an American habit.
If the political class in Spain continues to ignore the wishes of their industrious province, and is prepared to violate their own constitution, they may very well have a war on their hands. The last time they had such a war, 500,000 people died, and the nation was left under a fascist dictatorship for nearly 40 years...

...But no, they can't just get their fiscal house in order, and let their countrymen leave on friendly terms. They must do everything in their power to keep their passengers at gunpoint, on a sinking ship.

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America Has its Own Growing Secession Movement

Watching the results of Scotland’s secession gambit was quite a ride, if not a little disappointing in the end. It would have been fantastic to see that proud nation independent once again. I suppose it's not to be, at least for now. While Downing Street breathes a sigh of relief, perhaps they should reexamine the demographics of the voting results. They certainly don't bode well for the future of the United Kingdom.

For starters, the growth of the independence movement was quite impressive. From 2011 until the day of the vote, there were quite a few polls taken on the matter. While there were many swings from month to month, support for independence probably averaged around 30 percent until 2013. From 2014 on, it slowly but consistently climbed into the mid 40's. So who was responsible for this growing popularity?

Mainly the young and the poor, who are increasingly finding themselves in the same category as time goes on. 73 percent of those over 65 voted against secession, after fearing for the state of their pensions should Scotland break away. It's very likely that the oldest generation is the only thing keeping the “U” in the U.K.
The writing is on the wall, as it is in most countries. It seems that younger people don't like being ruled from far away elites who don't represent them, culturally or politically. As the previous generation dies off, they will slowly become the majority. This burgeoning urge to break nations down can be seen across the globe, and is a natural course of history. Of course, the United States is no exception.

Back in 2008, the Middlebury Institute conducted a poll, asking Americans how they felt about secession. It's a tough question for Americans to answer, because “secession” has become such a politically charged term since the Civil War. Despite this, 22 percent of Americans agreed to the statement “any state or region has the right to peaceably secede from the United States and become an independent republic.” As in Scotland, this belief was far more prevalent among the younger generation as well as the poor. 40 percent of those ages 18-24 said they accepted the right to secession.

Since secession is more popular with the younger crowd, how has it advanced over the course of six years? A recent poll taken between August and September found that 23.9 percent of Americans would support their state seceding from the United States. While this is only a slight increase, there are several more interesting trends that can be seen if you compare the 2008 poll to the 2014 poll.

For instance, the 2008 poll not only asked the public's support for secession, but how they felt about their own state seceding. While 22 percent supported the idea of secession, only 18 percent supported their home state seceding. Fast forward to the recent poll, which asked the same exact thing, and now 23 percent would support a secession movement in their home state. A somewhat significant increase over a few short years.
Also, the 2008 poll found more support among Hispanics, a growing demographic. The 2014 poll saw more support among Tea Party voters. Liberals were more open to it during 2008, because they were living under a conservative administration. Under a liberal president, the support has flipped to conservatives.

So to recap, secession is becoming more popular among Hispanics, the young, and the poor, all growing groups in the United States. And every time the presidency switches from conservative to liberal, the people in the opposite ideology open themselves up to the ideas of secession. Essentially all segments of society are being exposed to these ideas; something that should alarm the bureaucrats in D.C.

Adding to this fire, is the increased mobility recent generations have experienced. It was originally thought that building freeways, trains, and airports would break down cultural barriers. It has in fact done the opposite. It has made it easier for people to move to like minded communities, based on race, culture, income, and political affiliation. For instance, during the Carter election of 1976, 26.8 percent of Americans lived in landslide counties. During the 2004 election, that number had more than doubled to 48.3 percent. I can't imagine where it's at now.

Americans are self segregating themselves and lines are being drawn, even if it's somewhat subconscious. While we're an incredibly diverse nation filled with many races and cultures, those sorts of nations only last as long as the arrangement is prosperous for all (think Switzerland).

Even during the 19th and 20th century, when many ethnic and political groups found themselves marginalized by mainstream society, at least their children were growing more prosperous than their parents. But we're not that nation anymore. Without at least some prosperity for all, diverse nations don't hold together. In fact, once the money train makes its last stop, most multi-cultural and multi-racial nations end violently (now think Yugoslavia).

It's really not that surprising that separatist sentiments would be growing here. As the government becomes more centralized, it's forcing many of America's cultures together, marginalizing everybody. Washington is pushing their culture on us. They don't want the second amendment, they don't want legal marijuana, they don't want to end the war on terror, they don't want to end abortion etc etc.

You'll notice those are all pretty diverse opinions, but they're all largely the opinions of the elite in Washington. No matter what they choose on any given issue, they'll always piss off tens of millions of Americans. Sometimes it happens to be red states and sometimes it happens to be blue states (or insert any other dichotomy you can think of). But no matter who is elected president, or who takes the house, or who gets placed on the supreme court, somebody is going to get the shaft. That somebody is almost always 49 percent of the population.

And ultimately, 50/50 countries don't last long.

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As Scotland Goes, So Goes the European Union

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Throughout history, there have been empires. They rise and fall like the tide every century, and likewise, their collapse looks pretty much the same every time. This time around won't be any different. In this case the empire is the EU, and it will likely fall in a manner similar to the Soviet Union.

Beginning in 1987 when Estonia demanded autonomy, until 1991 when the whole empire had disintegrated into 15 states, the secession movements across the Soviet Union proved to be rather contagious. And that's how it often goes in large multi-ethnic empires. Especially when one of their member states decides to leave, and they are not met with brutal reprisals from the regime, as appears to be the case with Scotland.

Contrast 1991 with 1956, when the people of Hungary attempted to overthrow their Soviet government, they were met with 30,000 troops and over a thousand tanks who quickly dispatched the rebellion, and pummeled it into a bloody heap. By the end of the 20th century though, the Soviet regime was in such a wretched financial state, and the calls for autonomy so loud and unanimous, that there was no choice but to give in. Once the nation of Lithuania successfully left the union in 1990 it opened a floodgate of separatism that would not be stopped.

That's really all it takes. One member finds the courage to slip out the hole in the prison fence. When everyone else see's that he hasn't been shot, everyone else follows. What makes the situation in Scotland so interesting though, is that they fully intend to stick with the European Union if they succeed in breaking away from the UK. However, Scotland isn't the only secession movement in Europe. It seems like nearly every EU country has at least one burgeoning separatist movement, and it's doubtful they would let Scotland join them.

They want to punish Scotland. They want them to feel the economic sting of a cold shoulder. They want to make an example of Scotland, and show the rest of these movements what will happen if they leave:

"Other countries will look very closely at how European institutions and member states would manage it. In Spain, Prime Minister Rajoy and the Constitutional Court have both ruled out a similar referendum for Catalonia. But a ‘yes’ in Scotland would make for a much noisier situation in Spain. After a ‘yes’ vote, Scotland would effectively become the pioneer, carving a path forward that Catalonia would try and follow."

In addition to Catalonia, the Basque region of Spain also is home to a budding legion of separatists who want to vote for independence. Other, less mature independence movements that could grow include the Dutch-speaking Flanders region of Belgium, as well as Venice and other areas in northern Italy.

A "yes" vote in Scotland would likely lead to a tenuous, uncertain situation as it tries to regain membership into the European Union by the time it would become fully independent in March 2016. To get back into the EU would require a unanimous vote by current members, which may be impossible as countries like Spain and Belgium would want to use the situation as a deterrent to separatist movements in their own countries.

However, this will probably backfire for the European Union. While the desire for internal secession has been more popular than the desire to leave the EU, that could quickly change if Scotland is pushed into a corner. What happens if Scotland, completely independent from the UK, and the EU, ends up being a very successful nation? Most small nations are in fact, far wealthier and happier than their larger counterparts. If Scotland's gambit is successful, it will not only encourage more secession movements from countries like France, Spain, and Italy, it will fuel the nationalist movements that want to leave the EU as well. They may prove once and for all, that nations outside of the EU are far better off without their bureaucratic overlords.

And in an very interesting twist, Scotland's secession from the UK, may in fact fuel the UK's secession from the EU:

All of those questions would have to be sorted out. But the biggest effect of Scottish independence, Bremmer said, could be the ultimate change of Britain's political landscape. Currently, 40 of Scotland's 59 members parliament come from the Labour party compared to just one from the conservative-leaning Tories.

As Bremmer explained, Scottish independence would "tilt the entire U.K. political spectrum to the right." That would boost the odds of a conservative majority winning in 2015.

Ultimately, he said, it could be a "game-changer" for the chances of a referendum on an "in-or-out" referendum on the U.K.'s place in the E.U. Prime Minister David Cameron has proposed a referendum in 2017 if the conservative party wins an outright majority next year.

"If Scotland votes ‘yes,’ down the road would come the ultimate irony," Bremmer said. "The U.K. would be more likely to pull out of the E.U., while Scotland clamors to get in."

If Scotland leaves, then they won't be allowed into the EU. Meanwhile, what's left of the UK will become more conservative, and they will likely leave the EU as well. If both cases end up being far more successful without the EU, then separatist movements across Europe will be emboldened and legitimized. “If they can do it, so can we!” the people will say in a dozen different languages.

While the collapse of megastates and multi-ethnic empires are often quite similar throughout history, this one may go down as one of the stranger cases. This would be like Manhattan trying to form a separate state from New York, while inadvertently causing the United States to break apart.

In addition, the UK is one of largest economies in Europe and the only counterbalance to Germany. Without Britain, Germany would have the largest say in a union of countries that largely despises them. Germany doesn't think much of their neighbors either, since they've been the ones footing the largest bill for the EU. I wonder how long that relationship will last? I suspect it will fall apart in piecemeal at first, then rapidly if German decides they don't want to carry Europe's baggage anymore.

And so the European Union will go, one tiny nation at a time. The world will see once again what has happened a thousand time before to massive bureaucratic empires. As for the rest of the 21st century, stay tuned for China, India, Brazil, the rest of Russia, Canada, Mexico and the United States.

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